“Coincidentally,thesearetheexactsameoddsasinourfinalforecastin2016,”hetweeted,addingthatwhileTrump’seventualwinwentagainstmostprofessionalpredictions,FiveThirtyEightwasoneofthefewoutletsthatdidnotcompletelywriteoffthecurrentpresident.
“It’swaytoosoontocountTrumpout,”saysSilverinanarticledetailinghisforecast.“Iftheelectionwereheldtoday,[Biden]mightevenwininalandslide,”hesaid,adding“buttheelectionisnotbeingheldtoday.”
Historically,it’sbeencommonforpollstoshift“fairlyradically”frommid-AugusttoElectionDay,Silvernoted,andnomodelcanpredicttheunpredictable,fromtheCovid-19pandemicandthepossibledevelopmentofthevaccinetotheongoingBlackLivesMatterprotests.
In2016,multipleprominentanalystsconcludedtherewasa99percentchanceofHillaryClintonbecomingpresident.Sinceherloss,muchofthefaithinpollingandmodelingofanykindseemstohavebeenshaken,asTrumphimselfoftenspeaksabout“fakepolls”whileremindingAmericanshe’sovercometheoddsoncealready.

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