规则限制？但哈登依然罚球多，看美球迷理性激辩：摆数据讲道理规则限制？但哈登依然罚球多

规则限制？但哈登依然罚球多，看美球迷理性激辩：摆数据讲道理

[OC] Is Harden’s foul-drawing a true outlier this year? (Yes, but not how you"d expect)

哈登本赛季造犯规次数鹤立鸡群？（没错，但是原因可能并不是你想的那样）

I’ve seen so much naive analysis on Harden"s free throws in the last couple weeks on r/NBA that I dove into the Second Spectrum tracking data to see what the richer data tells us. What I found is pretty surprising, and I think cuts against current r/NBA groupthink. I visualized:

这几周在论坛上看到太多有关哈登罚球问题无聊浅显的分析，于是查了些由Second Spectrum提供的跟踪数据，看看更丰富的数据统计还能告诉我们些啥。我发现了些挺有趣的东西，而且我认为这些数据说明的事实和论坛的风向正好相反，接下来我尽量用通俗易懂的语言向大家陈述我的发现。[译注1]

[译注1]：Second Spectrum是一个位于加州的运动大数据科技公司，同时也是NBA官方合作伙伴，NBA许多技术统计都由该公司提供，该公司致力于通过人工智能改变体育。

The frequency of true "drives to the rim" for the top 30 dribble penetrators in the league, plotted against the % of those trips ending in personal fouls. DttR is calculated as total drives minus drives ending in passes or turnovers.

下图横轴截选了联盟前三十位运球突破手的净突破次数（净突破次数=所有突破次数-突分次数-突破时失误次数），纵轴代表了这些球员突破时造成犯规的百分比概率。

Since Harden gets so many 3 point shooting fouls, I looked at the frequency and distribution of 3PA by nearest defender distance for the top 10 three point shooters in the league. The goal is to see if Harden takes significantly more closely guarded threes than other stars.

因为哈登三分投篮犯规的罚球数量挺可观的，于是我特地看了联盟前十的顶级射手投三分时与最近防守人距离的频率分布。我查看这数据的目的就是想确认，相比其他球星，哈登是不是在面临紧贴防守时出手了多得多的三分。

When isolating play types and factoring in defender distance, Harden does not appear to be over-earning free throws, relative to similar superstars. What actually stands out is that Harden is a pretty insane outlier in the frequency with which he attacks tight defenses.

当把打法和防守者距离的因素排除在外时，哈登相比其他的超级明星似乎并不能得到更多的罚球。这也实际上说明了，哈登面对紧贴防守时尝试进攻的次数是常人难及的。

So when you see Harden leading the league in FTA, or you see him with 20 FTA or four 3-point fouls in a single game, remember:

所以如果当你看到哈登领跑联盟场均罚球次数，亦或是一场罚了20个球或者造了4次三分犯规，别忘记：

He’s driving to the rim to score more than 50% more frequently than Lebron and Giannis, and actually drawing fewer fouls per drive than either.

他每场突破冲击篮筐的频率比詹姆斯和字母哥还要多上50%，而且实际上哈登每次突破造成的犯规数要比那哥俩少。

He’s taking 60% more tightly contested threes than anybody else in the league.

他在紧贴防守下出手的三分次数比全联盟任一球员都要多60%以上。

He’s doing both of these at the same time. No other player is in the top 5 of both lists, and only Damian Lillard is in the top ten.

他的净突破次数和在紧贴防守下的三分出手次数都同为联盟第一。没有人能在这两项数据统计中同时排名前五，同时排名前十的只有利拉德。

Notes:

Drives to the Rim = Drives per Game net of Drives ending in passes or turnovers, from NBA.com tracking data

DttR Foul Rate = # of PF taken on Drives divided # of Drives to the Rim, from NBA.com tracking data

3P Shot Type data from NBA.com tracking data

小贴士：

净突破次数=所有突破次数-突分次数-突破时失误次数，数据来源：NBA官网的跟踪数据。

净突破犯规率=突破时造成的犯规数÷净突破次数。数据来源：NBA官网的跟踪数据。

3分球面对防守压迫程度。数据来源：NBA官网的跟踪数据。

[–]RaptorsJakeVirtannnen 562 指標 6小時前

So TL DR: Harden"s freethrows are more due to the sheer volume of his attempts, drives etc and not due to the refs gifting him calls?

给嫌太长不看的人概括一下楼主的观点吧：哈登可观的罚球次数更多是因为他大量的出手次数、突破之类造成的，而不是因为裁判照顾给的哨。我没总结错吧？

[–]CelticsLefty_Mcgee 193 指標 5小時前

Bingo. It’s due to sheer volume and the fact he is incredibly skilled at ISO and art of drawing a foul. People bitch that the refs gift him, but in reality he earns it.

对头，哈登获得的罚球次数多是因为他的出手次数多，而且他是单打专家、造犯规的大师。人们总喜欢BB裁判照顾哈登，但实际上这些罚球都是哈登挣来的。

[–]Warriorsowlbi 375 指標 4小時前*

Correlation is not causation folks and if that"s your takeaway from these graphs you"re violating some pretty fundamental principles of data analysis. I know I"m going against the karmic winds here, but let me explain:

OP"s stats show us that Harden drives to the rim more and takes more 3PA with close defenders.

OP"s stats do not show us the causal relationship for either of those comparisons.

勇士球迷：相关并不蕴含因果，如果楼主从这些数据图表中得出的东西就是这些的话，那么楼主可是违背了一些很基础的数据分析原则。我知道我这回复可能和这帖风向格格不入，但是请听我解释：

楼主的数据告诉了大家哈登更喜欢突破冲击篮筐，也更倾向于在与防守者距离较近时出手三分。

但是楼主列的数据并没有告诉大家这些比较和哈登罚球次数多的因果关系。

It could be true that Harden simply drives more and shoots more FTA because of that.

It could be true that Harden just takes more 3PA with close defenders and gets more fouls called as a result.

It could also be true that Harden drives more because he intends to seek a foul, rather than because he"s making a legitimate drive at the rim. (I.E. The behavior everyone complains about is causing his outlier status on drive numbers rather than the reverse)

哈登的突破次数和投篮次数更多，所以他得到更多的罚球。有可能。

哈登就是喜欢在与防守者距离较近时出手三分，因此他能获得更多的三分犯规罚球。也有可能。

哈登为了造犯规而有意识的增加突破次数。同样有可能啊！也就是说，球迷们不爽哈登的那种“行为”（造犯规）恰恰是导致他突破次数自成一档的原因，而不是说，哈登突破次数独成一档导致了他得到罚球次数很多。这两者的因果关系楼主可能搞反了。

It could also be true that Harden takes more "3 point attempts" with close defenders specifically because he"s trying to get those hook/screen 3PA fouls.

It could be a combination of the above circumstances or even some other confounding factor that results in the stats we see.

Personally I"m inclined to believe it"s a little of Column A, a little of Column B.

哈登为了获得更多的三罚机会，所以他更多的选择在和防守者距离较近时出手三分，这也有可能是真的。

我举例了正反两面的极端情况，当然现实中不会那么绝对，楼主列出的哈登数据是由上述情况的混合或者甚至还有一些其他的混合因素一起导致的。

到底是因为哈登的进攻方式制造了更多的犯规获得了更多的罚球，还是为了获得更多的罚球哈登才选择了这样的进攻方式呢？话不能说死，我个人倾向于认为都有一点吧。

[–][HOU] Clint Capelatrickmick12 50 指標 3小時前*

Yeah, I agree with what you said but I don"t think the point of the post is to say Harden doesn"t drive or shoot with the intent of drawing a foul. I think it is more to show that even though sometimes he does, he does not get gifted fouls more than other stars.

火箭球迷：对，我同意你的观点。但是你好像没get到楼主的点啊，这帖不是要证明哈登的突破和投篮从没带有造犯规的意图。而是想表达就算有时候哈登有意识的造犯规，但是他从裁判那得到的照顾也没比别的球星多啊。

In fact, he is less likely to be fouled on a drive or shot than other stars which goes against the anti-Harden jerk. Most reasonable fans that watch him play know that both are true, these stats are for those who believe that he has the refs in his back pocket

事实上，哈登每次突破或者投篮能造成的犯规数（相比其他球星）更少，这与批评哈登的论调并不吻合。大部分看过哈登比赛的理智球迷都明白，哈登有时在突破和投篮时确实有造犯规的意图，但同时，哈登也并不是就占了什么便宜。楼主的这些数据是给那些觉得哈登收买了裁判的人看的。

[–]Warriorsowlbi 28 指標 3小時前

He gets them at the same rate as LeBron James while driving. Shroder drives nearly as much as Harden and gets far fewer. Does he deserve as many FTA per drive as LeBron? Subjectively I"m pretty hesitant to say so...

勇士球迷：哈登在突破时获得犯规的概率都和乐邦一样了。施罗德场均净突破次数和哈登基本相当，但是制造的犯规次数却远比哈登的少。在这方面（突破时获得犯规的概率），哈登理应跟詹姆斯一样吗？我主观上并不敢这么说。

Most reasonable fans that watch him play know that both are true, these stats are for those who believe that he has the refs in his back pocket

I completely agree with this. It wasn"t my intent to say that we should disregard OP"s stats, merely to point out that some people are drawing some far fetched conclusions and this data can only tell a small part of the story.

引用楼上“大部分看过哈登比赛的理智球迷都明白，哈登有时在突破和投篮时确实有造犯规的意图，但同时，哈登也并不是就占了什么便宜。”

我同意你这个观点，我完全没有不尊重楼主摆数据讲道理的意思，我只是想指出，有些球迷从这些数据里得出了一些非常牵强的结论。这两个数据表的确可以说明一些东西，但仅仅只是“一些”罢了，别太夸大了。

[–]CelticsLefty_Mcgee 35 指標 3小時前

Obviously he fishes for calls and will sometimes bank on getting a call. But how are you to define whether a drive is “legitimate” or not? 95% of the time he is seeking a foul it probably also overlaps with him also believing he can get himself to the rim and finish.

哈登有些造犯规明显有钓鱼嫌疑，他有时候一些球就是冲着造犯规去的。但是怎么去定义一次突破是否算正当突破呢？哈登试图造犯规时，95%的情况下，他可能也同时相信自己能杀到篮下完成得分（只有5%的情况下算是完全奔着造犯规，完全不冲得分去的）

In the end it doesn’t really matter why he does what he does. What you conveniently ignored was that Op says it appears James is not over-earning fouls on drives relative to other players. He’s also 1st in 3PM with a defender within 2-4 feet on around 35%. He’s making the shots, and getting proportionate calls when driving. So I’m not really sure what your point is.

最后，哈登为什要这样做，或者他到底做了些什么其实无关紧要。你们真正忽视的是楼主说的“相比其他球员，哈登看来并没有在突破时能得到相比其他球员更多的哨子。”出手时距离防守球员仅0.6m-1.2m的情况下，哈登命中的三分排联盟第一，命中率大概35%。他投中了很多篮，同时在突破时获得了适当的哨子。所以我真的不知道那位勇士球迷想说什么。

[–]Nuggetsmojofac 50 指標 3小時前

But how are you to define whether a drive is “legitimate” or not?

I"d say the ones where he drives, looks like a sniper shot him in the back, and flings the ball while flailing his arms are probably not legitimate.

引用楼上“但是怎么去定义一次突破是否是正当突破呢？”

如果当他突破时，突然像身后中了狙击手一弹一般，把球随手一抛，开始猛甩他的手臂，那么这个突破就不算是正当突破。

[–]NBAgrae313 30 指標 4小時前

I"d agree with that conclusion for the driving data, but I don"t buy it for the 3 pt data. How many of those "tightly contested shots" was just harden chucking something towards the basket while a defender is fighting over a screen? I wouldn"t call that "taking a contested 3 pt shot", I"d call that manufacturing a shooting foul while being behind the arc.

我挺同意由哈登突破数据中得出的结论，但是由三分数据得出的那些结论我就不是很赞同了。有多少“面对紧贴防守时的三分出手”是哈登在面对正在和挡拆纠缠的防守人时往人身上一蹭投出去的？我不会称这种投篮为“面对紧贴投篮时的三分出手。”我会称此为“人造三分线外投篮犯规。”

[–]Rocketskarjacker 29 指標 4小時前*

First of all, if you draw a three point foul, it doesn’t count as a 3 point attempt at all and him missing would actually drop his 3pt%. So he still attempts by far the most tightly contested three point fouls without being fouled, leads the league in 3PM, and makes them at a 40% clip.

首先，如果你造了一个三分犯规，那么这次出手根本不会算作3分出手，而且如果他没造成功，他的三分命中率只会降低。哈登在仍然以40%的命中率在三分命中数统计中位居联盟榜首，要知道这还是他的很多三分出手是在距离防守者较近时完成的，当然了进入统计的出手可没被算作三分犯规。

You know they made that not a shooting foul this year right? I’ve watched the majority of rockets games this season and haven’t once seen him draw a three point foul fighting over a screen like last season. His fouls that he draws are when a defender is reaching and hits him while he goes up. And harden leads the league in four point plays.

你知道联盟今年的哈登法则吧，之前那种造犯规可是行不通的。今年火箭大部分比赛我都看了，我可没见哈登像上赛季那样借助掩护造防守者的三分犯规了。哈登这赛季造的犯规一般都是当他起跳后，对手侵犯或者实打实的打到了他。另外，哈登本赛季的3+1次数领跑联盟。

[–]Knickstommy_the_tit 20 指標 2小時前

You know they made that not a shooting foul this year right

this, this, absolutely this. I swear to god most people don’t even watch games if they regurgitate the same canned complaint despite the league explicitly changing the rules to address the issue.

Honestly sometimes I miss the continuation call, but it’s great that people like Harden are still great despite the rule change.

引用“你知道联盟今年的哈登法则吧，之前那种造犯规可是行不通的。”

你说的太对了！我打包票大部分人都不会去看比赛，就算联盟已经改变规则去解决了这个问题，还是整天就特么知道嚼老梗。

港真我有时候还是挺怀念之前连续性动作的判罚规则，不过尽管联盟的规则发生了巨变，哈登这样的球员仍然能适应的不错，这很了不起。

[–][HOU] Michael BeasleyJimHarden 212 指標 6小時前

I see people say LeBron drives just as much as Harden and should get the same amount of calls (completely ignoring Hardens foul drawing ability) all the time on here. TIL they"re pulling shit out of their ass

火箭球迷：我之前总是看到有人说乐邦和哈登的突破次数差不多，所以乐邦也应该有哈登那么多的哨子（完全忽视了哈登的造犯规能力）。今天看了楼主贴我才明白，你们特么都是张口就来啊。

[–]Rocketshtown_hold_it_down 116 指標 6小時前

Welcome to r/nba

火箭球迷：张口就来不就是这个论坛的特色吗。

[–]Cp3thegod 105 指標 6小時前

This is the best post I’ve seen in a long time. Curious where hardens ridiculous volume compares on an all-time level to some of the other great scorers?

好久没在论坛看到这么好的帖子了。有人知道相比其他伟大的得分手，哈登这个神奇的出手次数大概能排到什么位置吗？

[–]primarysrc 38 指標 4小時前

First, I think the data visuals are great. Very clean.

Secondly, I wouldn"t push your own interpretation too hard. The statement that Harden drives to the rim (per game) are much higher than others, or that his foul rate is not the highest, is factual and correct -- but the implication that he does not "over-earn free throws" should be marked clearly as your own interpretation and open to debate.

(Also dislike the cherry-picked example comparing Harden to Lebron and Giannis, who are #1 and #2 in the foul rate, and then saying Harden at #3 is fewer than theirs. Yeah, he"s fewer than Lebron and Giannis, he"s also more than everyone else in the chart!)

首先，我认为楼主列的数据挺棒的，清晰易懂，很不错。

其次，你针对数据得出的结论，我并不敢苟同。你所说的哈登场均净突破次数比其他球员多，或者他每次突破造成的犯规数不是最高的，都是真实且正确的。但是你所暗示的“他没有得到过多的罚球次数”是你自己的解读，你应该标清楚了这是你的个人观点而不是实际数据，留给球迷针对这结论展开辩论的空间。

而且，我也不喜欢你选择性地拿詹姆斯和字母哥这两个突破得到哨子的概率排第一第二的人说事，说哈登第三，所以哨子其实少。是啊，他是比詹姆斯和字母哥少啊，但是他比表格中的其他所有的人都要概率大啊。

Honestly, I would be skeptical of any conclusions drawn from the data (pro or anti-Harden). Harden plays a style that is optimized for the current situation, and if he drew fewer fouls per drive or phantom contact, he would just alter his play to find the next efficient scoring option/style.

说真的，（我不是针对楼主）我对所有针对数据得出的结论（无论是挺还是踩哈登的）都要掂量掂量。哈登的打球方式是很功利的，只求最优解。如果哈登在每次突破或者对抗中得到的哨子更少的话，他只会改变他的打法，去寻求下一个更有效率的得分方式。

[–]Bucksjedi_timelord 88 指標 5小時前

You"ve identified what he"s doing, but that doesn"t really answer the why or how. He drives against tight defenses with the intent to draw a foul, and shoots with a defender on him with the intention of going into him for contact. That"s the problem people have with his game.

楼主，你解答了哈登在做什么，但是这并不能解答哈登为什么要这样做或者他到底是怎样做的。面对严密防守时哈登的目的是造犯规，哈登在投篮时跳向防守人、寻求身体接触。这才是人们不爽的点。

[–]CelticsLefty_Mcgee 57 指標 5小時前

Why do they have a problem though? He is so relentless and difficult to defend that defenses struggle to stop him without fouling. If you found your bread and butter like Harden, you would exploit defenses to the greatest extent. Anyone who has a problem with that is just salty.

可是为什么不爽呢？哈登在进攻端宛如冷血杀手，对手如果不对他犯规的话很难阻止他。换成是你，你有哈登这样的独门绝技，你难道不会最大化地利用自己的绝招，让防守人付出代价吗？不爽？倒不如说是酸。

[–]NBAgrae313 34 指標 4小時前

If you found your bread and butter like Harden, you would exploit defenses to the greatest extent.

I"m pretty sure almost everyone says "yeah, we understand why he does it and it"s smart and effective, but it"s fucking annoying basketball to watch"

引用楼上“换成是你，你有哈登这样的独门绝技，你难道不会最大化地利用自己的绝招，让防守人付出代价吗？”

我挺确信大部分人会这样认为：“我们理解哈登这种打法，这种打法其实既聪明又高效，但就是太特么难看了。”

[–]76ersBenSimmonsROTY 8 指標 5小時前

Great quality OC. The question is why is Harden taking so many tightly contested threes?

Harden is just exploiting the rule book, which is fine i guess (although not fun to watch). My view is that he takes more tightly contested threes in large part because he is deliberately attempting to draw a foul (rather than make the 3P shot).

质量挺高的一篇原创帖。问题是哈登为什么投了那么多紧贴防守下的三分？

哈登只是在利用规则，我认为这没毛病（尽管不好看吧）。我的观点是他之所以更多的在与防守人距离较近时选择三分出手，很大一部分原因是他有意地想制造犯规。（而不是投进这个三分）。

I have had more of an issue with how fouls on 3PA are being called across the league. Would love to see the frequency of 3P fouls per game or even 3P shooting fouls per 3PA over an extended period (no idea how this could be done) as i would suspect it is up a lot in the past couple of years as players are now playing for the foul rather than genuinely looking to make the shot.

Totally agree on drives to the rim. He doesnt over-earn FTs on these plays IMO, he just does it so much.

我还有一个问题就是联盟中对三分犯规的尺度到底怎样？有没有场均3分犯规数，或者说每三分出手制造犯规数（这数据估计挺难统计的，因为制造犯规成功了就不会把该次投篮计入三分出手了）这些数据，我倒是挺乐意看看的。我怀疑过去几年很多球员是为了制造犯规而投篮，而不是为了把球投进篮筐。

对于哈登突破制造犯规方面我完全没有异议，在我看来哈登并没有得到过多的罚球机会，只是他突破次数实在太多了（所以得到的哨子也多）。

[–]San Diego Rocketsblueberryy 11 指標 4小時前

I mean he has 9 4-point plays, sounds like he"s trying to make the shot

火箭球迷：哈登有九次4分球表演。这个数据告诉我，他还是想要投进那些三分的呀。

[–]Rocketskarjacker 6 指標 3小時前

Leads the league

火箭球迷：九次4分球，领跑全联盟。