48、he McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 23-28 The Option to Abandon: Example failuregiven Payoff failure Prob. successgiven Payoff sucess Prob. payoff Expected 5 .287$05 . 0575$5 . 0 payoff Expected 64.38$ )10. 1 ( 50.287$ 300$ t NPV Traditional NPV analysis would indicate rejection of t 。

49、he project. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 23-29 The Option to Abandon: Example The firm has two decisions to make: drill or not, abandon or stay. Do not drill Drill 0$NPV 500$ Failure Success: PV = $500 Sell the rig;
salvage value = https://www.renrendoc.com/paper/$250 Sit 。

50、 on rig;
stare at empty hole: PV = $0. Traditional NPV analysis overlooks the option to abandon. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 23-30 The Option to Abandon: Example failuregiven Payoff failure Prob. successgiven Payoff sucess Prob. payoff Exp 。

51、ected 50.412$0255 . 0575$5 . 0 payoff Expected 00.75$ )10. 1 ( 50.412$ 300$ t NPV When we include the value of the option to abandon, the drilling project should proceed: McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 23-31 Valuation of the Option to Abandon 。

52、 Recall that we can calculate the market value of a project as the sum of the NPV of the project without options and the value of the managerial options implicit in the project. OptNPVM Opt64.3800.75$ Opt64.3800.75$ 64.113$Opt McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All r 。

53、ights reserved. 23-32 Enrons Inefficient Plants In 1999 Enron planned to open gas-fired power plants in Mississippi and Tennessee. These plants were expected to sit idle most of the year, and, when operated to produce electricity at a cost of at least 50 percent higher than the most efficient state- 。

54、of-the-art facility. Enron was buying a put option on electricity. They can sell electricity when electricity prices spike. Typical price is around $40 per megawatt-hour, but occasionally the price is several thousand dollars. Having a plant that was only economic to operate a few weeks a year was a 。

55、 positive NPV investmentwhen you include the value of that option. Brealey, Myers, and Marcus Fundamentals of Corporate Finance, 3e. And “Exploiting Uncertainty: The “Real Options” Revolution in Decision Making” Business Week, June 7, 1999 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companie 。

【公司|公司理财的推广与应用(英文版)】56、s, Inc. All rights reserved. 23-33 23.5 Summary and Conclusions Options appear in a variety of corporate settings. We describe four types of options found in common corporate finance decisions. Executive stock options The option to expand embedded in a start-up. The option in simple business contracts. The option to shut down and reopen a project. We have the methodology to value them. 。

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